Unsustainable anthropogenic mortality threatens the long-term viability of lion populations in Mozambique

Anthropogenic mortality is a pervasive threat to global biodiversity. African lions (Panthera leo) are particularly vulnerable to these threats due to their wide-ranging behaviour and substantial energetic requirements, which typically conflict with human activities, often resulting in population declines and even extirpations. Mozambique supports the 7^th largest lion population in Africa, which is recovering from decades of warfare, while ongoing conflicts and broad-scale socio-economic fragility continue to threaten these populations. Moreover, there are concerns that Mozambique represents a regional hotspot for targeted poaching of lions which fuels a transnational illegal wildlife trade. This study aimed to quantify the longitudinal impact of anthropogenic mortality on lion populations in Mozambique. Using national population estimates and monitoring records, we performed forward simulation population viability modelling incorporating detection-dependent population trends and varying scales of anthropogenic mortality. Between 2010–2023, 326 incidents of anthropogenic mortality involving 426 lions were recorded. Bushmeat bycatch and targeted poaching for body parts were the greatest proximate causes of lion mortality (i.e., 53% of incidents), increasing significantly over time and acting as cryptic suppressors of regional population recovery, followed by legal trophy hunting (i.e., 33%), and retaliatory killing (i.e., 13%). Our findings suggest that resilience to anthropogenic threats is largely a function of lion population size as well as resource and management capacity. For instance, projections suggest that the lion population in Niassa Special Reserve will likely remain stable despite comparatively high levels of anthropogenic mortality, although further escalation may precipitate decline. Conversely, the lion population in Limpopo National Park is projected to become extirpated by 2030 without the buffering effect of its neighbouring source population in Kruger National Park. These unsustainable levels of anthropogenic mortality threaten the long-term viability of lion populations in Mozambique, requiring urgent national-level action and public-private partnerships to support site security, monitoring, and policy enforcement.