Upper Palaeolithic sites and where to find them: A predictive modelling approach to assess site expectancy in the Southern Levant

Site preservation and associated terrain characteristics are among the major agents controlling the spatial distribution and discoverability of late Quaternary archaeological sites. However, site expectancy in extensive areas can be determined using a combination of geoarchaeological investigation and digital spatial analysis. In that sense a prediction model, respectively the result of a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), is presented to highlight areas with a high potential to contain Upper Palaeolithic sites in the Eastern Mediterranean and bordering arid margins. Based on detailed on-site analysis in the Wadi Sabra region, with its many sites and the location of other well-known sites in the southern Levant, eight individual parameters, aspect (cardinal point), elevation, geomorphology, hydrogeology, drainage network, slope inclination, vegetation, and a terrain ruggedness index (TRI) are evaluated and tested for significance. The statistical results confirm a significant divergence of the spatial distribution of Upper Palaeolithic sites from the distribution of natural terrain position factors. This allows for a definition of parameter classes with a high site expectancy and their use in a predictive model. For the results map, the site expectancy factors determined in this way were intersected with each other, thus enabling a distinction between areas with a high and low site occurrence probability. The accuracy of the presented result is assessed by the implementation of another MCDA pass based on an independent dataset of archaeological survey sites and compared to the original. Both datasets complement each other and can show the potential for further investigations with more numerous site datasets as well as more detailed spatial information. A local classification based on high-resolution elevation information and field data is evaluated for the Wadi Sabra, Southern Jordan, which can confirm yet further specify the result from the MCDA.